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Twins Junkie : Minnesota Twins

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Sabermetrics-The real story

Player

AB

H

PA

HR

AVG

SB

RBI

SLG

R

BB

PA

Outs

TB

K

K/Outs %

Times on Base

GDP

W/K%

HR/H%

H/Out%

RBI /

Reach Base

Runs /

RBI

SB / Runs

Avg Bases / Hit

H/ RBI

GDP / HR

AB’s per out

GDP%

/outs

HBP

Guzman*

576

158

607

8

0.274

10

46

.384

84

30

606

418

221

64

0.15311

189

15

-34

5.0633

0.378

0.2434

1.8261

0.119

1.3999

3.4348

1.875

1.378

3.5885

1

Ford

569

170

649

15

0.299

20

72

.446

89

67

636

399

254

75

0.18797

250

15

-8

8.8235

0.4261

0.288

1.2361

0.2247

1.4928

2.3611

1

1.4261

3.7594

13

Jones

555

141

605

24

0.254

13

80

.427

69

40

595

414

237

117

0.282609

191

12

-77

17.021

0.3406

0.4188

0.8625

0.1884

1.6807

1.7625

0.5

1.3406

2.8986

10

Hunter

520

141

567

23

0.271

21

81

.475

79

40

560

379

247

101

0.266491

188

23

-61

16.312

0.372

0.4309

0.9753

0.2658

1.7518

1.7407

1

1.372

6.0686

7

Koskie*

422

106

483

25

0.251

9

71

.495

68

49

471

316

209

103

0.325949

167

6

-54

23.585

0.3354

0.4252

0.9577

0.1324

1.9707

1.493

0.24

1.3354

1.8987

12

Stewart

378

115

429

11

0.304

6

47

.447

46

47

425

263

169

44

0.1673

166

5

3

9.5652

0.4373

0.2831

0.9787

0.1304

1.4693

2.4468

0.4545

1.4373

1.9011

4

Blanco*

315

65

371

10

0.206

0

37

.368

36

56

371

250

116

56

0.224

121

8

0

15.385

0.26

0.3058

0.973

0

1.7834

1.7568

0.8

1.26

3.2

0

Rivas

336

86

350

10

0.256

15

34

.432

44

13

349

250

145

53

0.212

100

8

-40

11.628

0.344

0.34

1.2941

0.3409

1.6878

2.5294

0.8

1.344

3.2

1

Morneau

280

76

310

19

0.271

0

58

.536

39

28

308

204

150

54

0.264706

106

4

-26

25

0.3725

0.5472

0.6724

0

1.9747

1.3103

0.2105

1.3725

1.9608

2

Castro

299

73

313

2

0.244

1

26

.378

36

14

313

226

113

51

0.225664

87

11

-37

2.7397

0.323

0.2989

1.3846

0.028

1.5482

2.8077

5.5

1.323

4.8673

0

Redmond

246

63

268

2

0.256

1

25

.341

19

14

260

183

84

28

0.153005

85

10

-14

3.1746

0.3443

0.2941

0.76

0.053

1.3315

2.52

5

1.3443

5.4645

8

Cuddyer

339

89

379

12

0.263

5

45

.440

49

37

376

250

149

74

0.296

129

8

-37

13.483

0.356

0.3488

1.0889

0.10204

1.676

1.9778

0.6667

1.356

3.2

3

*No longer a Twin


Dynamic Replacement Charts

SS

Player

AB

H

PA

HR

AVG

SB

RBI

SLG

R

BB

PA

Outs

TB

K

K/Outs %

Times on Base

GDP

W/K%

HR/H%

H/Out%

RBI /

Reach Base

Runs /

RBI

SB / Runs

Avg Bases / Hit

H/ RBI

GDP / HR

AB’s per out

GDP%

/outs

HBP

Guzman

576

158

607

8

0.274

10

46

.384

84

30

606

418

221

64

0.15311

189

15

-34

5.0633

0.378

0.2434

1.8261

0.119

1.3999

3.4348

1.875

1.378

3.5885

1

Castro

299

73

313

2

0.244

1

26

.378

36

14

313

226

113

51

0.225664

87

11

-37

2.7397

0.323

0.2989

1.3846

0.028

1.5482

2.8077

5.5

1.323

4.8673

0

What does this mean? Even less hitting. A higher percentage of Castro's outs come from strikouts, and he makes more outs. No gained plate discipline, somewhat worse.

With Guzman to Castro, you go from a very poor homerun hitter to a horrendous homerun hitter. Guzman's HR/H% was an embarrasing 5% but Castro's percentage is a non-MLB caliber 2.7% (Justin Morneau is at 25%).

Supposedly Castro is a sound defensive player, but Christian Guzman was also (at the very least) a sound shortstop. The only substantial positive change is the price, which could've been used to keep Corey Koskie but wasn't. Lets see how the Twins use the saved money.

3B

Player

AB

H

PA

HR

AVG

SB

RBI

SLG

R

BB

PA

Outs

TB

K

K/Outs %

Times on Base

GDP

W/K%

HR/H%

H/Out%

RBI /

Reach Base

Runs /

RBI

SB / Runs

Avg Bases / Hit

H/ RBI

GDP / HR

AB’s per out

GDP%

/outs

HBP

Koskie

422

106

483

25

0.251

9

71

.495

68

49

471

316

209

103

0.325949

167

6

-54

23.585

0.3354

0.4252

0.9577

0.1324

1.9707

1.493

0.24

1.3354

1.8987

12

Cuddyer

339

89

379

12

0.263

5

45

.440

49

37

376

250

149

74

0.296

129

8

-37

13.483

0.356

0.3488

1.0889

0.10204

1.676

1.9778

0.6667

1.356

3.2

3

What does this mean? Some less strikouts, some more productive outs, which has underrated value especially because the Twins are a very run-manufacturing team. Improved but still poor plate discipline, a staple of the Twins offense (Not a good thing).

Fewer homeruns. Corey's homerun stretches during the regular season helped lift the team through some rough times. Cuddyer is still a decent homerun hitter compared to the rest of the lineup, but not a consistent threat like Corey was.

Catcher

Player

AB

H

PA

HR

AVG

SB

RBI

SLG

R

BB

PA

Outs

TB

K

K/Outs %

Times on Base

GDP

W/K%

HR/H%

H/Out%

RBI /

Reach Base

Runs /

RBI

SB / Runs

Avg Bases / Hit

H/ RBI

GDP / HR

AB’s per out

GDP%

/outs

HBP

Blanco

315

65

371

10

0.206

0

37

.368

36

56

371

250

116

56

0.224

121

8

0

15.385

0.26

0.3058

0.973

0

1.7834

1.7568

0.8

1.26

3.2

0

Mauer

107

33

119

6

0.308

1

17

.570

18

11

118

74

61

14

0.189189

45

1

-3

18.182

0.4459

0.3778

1.0588

0.0556

1.8482

1.9412

0.1667

1.4459

1.3514

1

Redmond

246

63

268

2

0.256

1

25

.341

19

14

260

183

84

28

0.153005

85

10

-14

3.1746

0.3443

0.2941

0.76

0.053

1.3315

2.52

5

1.3443

5.4645

8

What does this mean? If Mauer can stay healthy this year we should see him give the offense a considerable boost. He is a great power threat, and doesn't make a lot of outs. His 2004 Slugging Percentage was an astounding .570, and his TB/Hits percentage is 1.85 (almost a double for every hit).

If not, than Mike Redmond is a much less attractive offensive alternative. He hits for little to no power or much of anything for that matter. This is supposed to be okay because he has a good fielding percentage, which isn't something I am quick to buy into.


This table shows a stat invented by Bill James called Pythagorean expectation. The formula predicts how many games a team will win based on the number of runs scored and runs allowed. I crunched the 2004 numbers and came up with some pretty good results

 
  
Team Scored  Allowed      

          Approx. wins

      Actual wins wins Difference    
Anaheim 836 734 91 92 1
Arizona 615 899 52 51 1
Atlanta 803 668 96 96 0
Baltimore 842 830 82 78 4
Boston 949 768 98 98 0
Chicago A W-Sox 865 831 84 83 1
Chicago Cubs 789 665 95 89 6
Cincinati 750 907 66 76 10
Cleveland 858 857 81 80 1
Colorado 833 923 73 68 5
Detroit 827 844 79 72 7
Florida 718 700 83 83 0
Houston 803 698 92 92 0
Kansas City 720 905 63 58 5
Los Angeles 761 684 90 93 3
Milwaukee 634 757 67 67 0
Minnesota 780 715 88 92 4
Montreal 635 769 66 67 1
New York A Yankees 897 808 89 101 12
New York M 684 731 76 71 5
Oakland 793 742 86 91 5
Philidelphia 840 781 87 86 1
Pittsburgh 680 744 74 72 2
San Diego 768 705 88 87 1
Seattle 698 823 68 63 5
San Fran 850 770 89 91 2
St. Louis 855 659 102 105 3
Tampa 714 842 68 70 2
Texas 860 794 87 89 2
Toronto 719 823 70 67 -3
averages 779.2 779.2   81     81 3
# of teams dead on: 5
# of teams within one or dead on 12
 



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02-03-04...Back to back to back baby!